I think you really have to put it in context. There are companies that are objectively "pre IPO". That's no guarantee, but it's a probability. So you can start to make educated guesses at Expected Value.
If you're joining as the 5th or 50th guy, your options are probably a long-shot and they're not really worth considering. But if you're joining a pre-IPO company i suggest that you minimize salary and maximize options. There are a lot of great outcomes in the $50-250k/year range in option value. It's no lotto ticket, more like an extra salary in addition to your base salary. And it's tax advantaged!
If you're joining as the 5th or 50th guy, your options are probably a long-shot and they're not really worth considering. But if you're joining a pre-IPO company i suggest that you minimize salary and maximize options. There are a lot of great outcomes in the $50-250k/year range in option value. It's no lotto ticket, more like an extra salary in addition to your base salary. And it's tax advantaged!
https://blog.wealthfront.com/college-vs-retirement-savings-s...