Isn't what you learn in 4th or 5th grade math classes that you should be sceptical about your own calculations if they diverge a lot from your estimate? When it comes to empirical data, I think the only sensible approach is to remain equally sceptical about both your guess and the way the data was compiled or modelled.
But after a few rounds of scepticism, data analysis and model critique you should get to a point where you trust the data more than your own guess. Otherwise we could just as well stop doing science at all.
Science theater is the practice of investing in research intended to provide the feeling of improved understanding while doing little or nothing to actually achieve it.
But after a few rounds of scepticism, data analysis and model critique you should get to a point where you trust the data more than your own guess. Otherwise we could just as well stop doing science at all.