I looked into the AAA's "depreciation" and "interest" numbers, and it turns out the calculations are based on buying a car brand new with borrowed money, paying it off over the course of five years (at what must be a rather large interest rate given the average $900+ cost), and then selling it off the moment you're done paying it off.

So let's just say that we're comparing to a really dumb and expensive mode of car ownership.

Not to mention the fact that a few times (at least) per year, people are likely to use their cars for much more than just a local public transport replacement, but will want to drive across the country with the car loaded to the hilt with holiday gear of some description.

Rent a car for the duration of the vacation.

> More realistically, these commute times could easily be tripled in most cities

Parking is a significant cost for him, which is LA-specific, but still could be a significant burden.

> I'm pretty sure I'm going to keep this car unless it needs major mechanical repairs, and so far it hasn't.

Your repair cost is not zero, it's the cost of a major repair multiplied by the probability of it being required. Otherwise your model is not very predictive.

> Honestly, if your starting point is a Lexus, you're not really all that concerned with your transport costs to start with.

My Consumer Reports subscription expired, but from my recollection of going through the shopping process last year both Lexus an Mercedes rank very high on reliability and total cost of ownership ratings among sedans. So once again, whatever car you model against, TCO needs to be multiplied by reliability data from some third-party provider.

> Parking cost

Yeah, I can see that. And hassle. If I lived in a sufficiently dense city with good public transit, I'd get rid of my car tomorrow. In my area, you can get reserved spots for ~$250/mo. L.A. seems to run ~$100/mo to $300/mo depending on area.

> Otherwise your model is not very predictive.

No, it's perfectly predictive. I have a threshold that I will not exceed in a single repair on my car or in more than n repairs over some period of time. Once that threshold is achieved, I get rid of the car and make it the dealer's problem. I know from lots of prior experience that I can always get rid of a car for cheaper than what it would cost to fix it.

For example, I know that I will never ever pay more than $500 to repair my car. Ever. For any reason whatsoever.

I also know that once my car costs that much in repairs over 12 months, I will get rid of the car. Period. $400 over three repairs over a year? I'll keep it. $500? New car and hopefully 12 more years of almost trouble free driving.

> Lexus an Mercedes rank

Last time I checked, Mercedes had terrible reliability w/r to CR ratings. Like most German cars they have all kinds of issues with the electrical system. It's just something the Germans don't seem to have ever licked. It might have changed, but decades of not caring about the problem has made me put them in the "do not ever buy" category. Some UK sites regularly list Mercs in "least reliable" lists next to long lists of Renaults and Peugeots.

Anecdotal, all my friends who buy Mercedes cars, never buy another one because of all the time it spends getting fixed. Somehow Mercedes earned a weird reputation for reliability that I've never seen play out.

Of course, the only cars I've seen people actively work to get rid of after buying them were Land Rovers and Jaguars.

Strangely, high end Hondas (Acura in the U.S.) have much lower reliability scores than low and medium level Hondas.

Fords are getting better, but American cars are basically garbage. Lists of cars to avoid are dominated by American cars (mostly Chevys), followed closely by German cars. Mini is usually on those lists.

I've never figured out why people who buy American cars are confused by all the repair time and money they have to put into their vehicles. It's not like this isn't known and reported in virtually every car reliability survey.

"Wow my used 2006 VW Jetta diesel spends all the time in the shop? I never would have guessed something something German engineering blah blah diesels are more reliable"

You could have guessed this by actually looking up car reliability ratings.

"I can't believe that the trim and fittings started to fall off my 2005 Chevy Tahoe right before the engine required $3000 in repairs!"

You could believe it if you'd managed to crack open a used car reliability guide, any used car reliability guide, before buying it.

It could be worse, at least the American market doesn't have to contend with French cars shudder.

Here's actually decent free site built on the glassdoor principle. You share your info to get access to all the cars they have sufficient data on.

http://www.truedelta.com/car-reliability-results/06-2014

Mercedes owner here. I bought a (well-)used E-class diesel when our first was born. In five years, it's needed oil changes, brakes, two glow plugs, and one window regulator. That's well under $700 in parts and all of the jobs were easily done by me at home. MB cars are designed to be serviceable over the long-run (all panels that need removing are held with reusable fasteners; none of those shitty plastic Christmas tree fasteners, etc) and parts and service information is made available to all US owners (through MB North America) and I assume MB Europe does the same there.

For a car we bought for $6500 with 179K miles and now has 214K miles (and is worth $2000+), that's pretty damned good, I'd say.

My next car is overwhelmingly likely to be another E-class diesel. This one will probably die from rust from salt usage in New England winters, not becoming mechsnically untenable.

Wife's well-used Honda CR-V has needed more work in the 3 years we've had it, but still beats the stuffing out of the AAA model of car ownership expense!

Wow, car costs per mile are extremely cheap in the United State, if $.30-.40/mile is typical. The government estimate in Finland is about $.90/mile, and almost nobody has it that cheap. If I recall correctly, I calculated my own costs at around $1/mile, and I drive a 14-year-old car which requires very little maintenance.

As of 2014, the allowable tax deduction for business reimbursements for personal vehicle usage is $.56 per mile, which is supposed to cover gas and wear and tear on your personal vehicle.

Finland: according to Numbeo [1] fuel runs around 1.66 Euro per liter. In the U.S. it's $.96 per liter (or .73 Euro).

I'm guessing there's probably some kind of auto tax in Finland which appears to be fairly expensive. I've heard it's ~20% of the current cost of the car per year, but I can't figure out the tax code from looking on-line. In the U.S. it's complicated, but in places that have a personal property tax, it's usually pretty low. I think the tax on my car is something like $250/year.

Wear and tear can cost a lot as well. I live in a pretty weather prone part of the U.S., but I'm guessing it's nothing like the typical Finnish winter.

1 - http://www.numbeo.com/gas-prices/

There's "usage tax" which is something like $200 - $400 per year. If the car is a diesel, it's significantly higher (but diesel is taxed at a lower rate). Diesel cars are cheaper only if you drive a certain amount of kilometers per year.

There's also the 'car tax' you pay when you buy a new car, which is rather high. A $31k car in the United States is about $48k in Finland.

Winter does increase car ownership. Cars rust more, and you also need two sets of tires (and winter tires tend to wear out faster than summer tires).

That still makes car surprisingly expensive when compared to motorcycles. When I recently sold my 14 year old motorcycle (also in Finland), I calculated the TCO at 30 Euro cents per kilometer.

Of course, the fact that a lot of the driving had been in east Europe, Russia, etc. is a factor in fuel costs.

Then again, the motorcycles are generally usable only for 5-6 months of a year in Finland.

what car are you driving and how much mileage was on it when you bought it?

I honestly think to get from point A to B, a used car will do the job just fine, sounds pretty good from what you've described.

2002 Honda Civic Sedan, 0 miles when I bought it, still had the factory shipping plastic on it.

It's not a sweet ride, it's more like an automotive appliance. It's reasonably comfortable, I change the oil regularly and take it for all the scheduled maintenance and services. But I don't take particularly good care of it.

Everything is cheap with it, tires, gas, etc.

It's only broken down on me once, and my insurance covered the tow costs, the part was a $100 Oxygen sensor.

edit

I recommend taking a look at consumer reports, look at make models for cars you are interested in, look at the used car reliability history and pick the cheapest possible car with perfect or near perfect reliability over the last 5 years. Then buy a brand new version of that car unless it's the first year of an all new model year. If that's the case, you can usually buy the outgoing model at a discount and benefit from a few years of manufacturing know how.

I came from a family thought bought exclusively used cars (and still does) and in the time I've owned my 1 car I bought new, my parents have been through maybe 7 cars? A friend of mine who also buys used exclusively, but doesn't consult Consumer Reports has been through 11 cars.

I also went through a string of used cars until finally deciding to just buy new. You might get lucky with a used car, but you never know what's happened to those cars and most people end up getting rid of cars because the repair costs are getting too high.

Some folks seem to almost have a religion about buying used cars. The one relatively low mileage used car I bought as an adult ended up with a lot of maintenance bills for whatever reason. I also had really bad luck with a new Dodge but my other new car purchases have all provided a pretty good lifetime of service. One of my current cars is a 1997 Honda Del Sol and it's still going strong at 160,000 miles.

Yeah. I'm always surprised at how much hassle people are willing to put up with for their cars. I very much look at them as transportation appliances. I'm an ideal consumer for self-driving cars. There's really very little about driving that I actually enjoy, so I'm simply not very tempted to go out and buy a great driver's car or an expensive weekend track car or something.

People just have different tolerances for things I guess. I just have very little tolerance for times when my car goes bad and for wasting time at the dealership. There's other stuff I'd much rather be doing than going through the hassle of buying a car or getting one repaired. So I seek out the cheapest, most reliable car that offers a reasonable level of comfort I can find.

My parents apparently have made the equation work for them to go to a car dealership once a year or so and spend time having one of their cars in the shop every few months for this or that minor thing. All so they can save a few thousand dollars on the sticker price. Once I got out on my own and had to deal with that on my own, I couldn't make it work, so I don't mess around with it.

New doesn't necessarily mean "more reliable", but a make/model (of any sort) with a multi-year track history of ultra high reliability puts you statistically in the game to have a trouble free car.

I have a 1998 Honda Civic Sedan which other than an oil change and tuneup, has been running fine. More than once people have asked me if I was interested in selling it most likely due to how reliable these cars are.

Buying a reliable luxury car after its lease expires is a decent deal, as the showy rich folk generate a surplus of lightly used well maintained cars.

You could buy a car for $2000 to $3000, drive it for 6 months and sell them for more. Or buy one for $4000 to $5000, drive it for 2 years then sell it for $3000 without a sweat.

These Uber-models are great, and I would love to Uber/Lyft/.... everywhere, but they are costly and I do not know what people mean when they say "average" driver in X city.

Aren't you forgetting the cost of gas+parking+title+insurance+maintenance?