Yes, but for should care if it's 2 years vs 50 years. That's why timeline are important for predictions.
Anyone can predict lots of things that given enough time will eventually be true. "The sun will burn out", "humans as a species will no longer exist", "the US will collapse". That's useless. But those become meaningful if they will happen within the next three years.
It's the reason the saying "the market can be irrational longer than your can stay solvent" has such important meaning.
> Predicting things 5 years too early is often as useless as not predicting anything.
It depends on what type of thing you are predicting and why. Even something as simple as "Enron will implode" in 1995 has very different levels of usefulness if you are planning to short a stock versus figuring out what stock to buy and hold in your retirement account.
>Predicting things 5 years too early is often as useless as not predicting anything.
I dont think Zitron has predicted anything 5 years too early. 1 or 2 at the outside is probably the limit.
I remember during the original internet boom the people who were given the most shit were the ones who predicted the bubble popping a year or two early.
Zitron fits quite neatly in this category: most of the predictions of his Ive seen that are "wrong" are things which could still happen and things where he gave wrong timelines.
Realistically identifying a bubble and the stupidity associated with it just requires an ability to do the research and see through bullshit. identifying even roughly when it will pop really needs a crystal ball. Mass human delusions do not collapse in a predictable way.
My recollection is a couple years before it popped everybody (except tech CEOs going public or investing tens of millions in dog food delivery infrastructure) was in disbelief it hadn't happened yet
yeah I also remember a lot of talk about the bubble for 18 months to 2 years before it actually popped.
i think we're in that (quite long) stage with AI right now where most halfway smart people "know" but they're still invested due to the greater fool theory and still talking their book.
You can say "AI will be able to _____" and be right 99.9 times out of 100, but the question is when.
You can say "The AI market will go to 0" and be at least directionally right eventually.
But none of it matters if you get the timing wrong.