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The ponzi scheme of property-values-always-go-up only holds when population is increasing. In the US, immigration and fertility changes are bringing population growth to a halt. Good news: We may yet enter an era of housing abundance!


Yes and no, at least in the USA. Thanks to companies rug-pulling with RTO, the populace won’t leave cities again this generation regardless of how cheap other places might be; we have to stay near the place of employment, and those are predominantly in cities.

Frustratingly, cities have a housing crisis in that there’s not enough stock to meet demand - period. We can carve up the rationale in a variety of ways (too expensive, too many vacant units held hostage for investing, NIMBYs, red tape, etc), but the blunt truth is that companies and the government have made it abundantly clear that the only chance at a successful career is in a major metro, and thus more folks will move to them seeking their lottery ticket to the middle class.

So what ends up happening is rural areas will continue to thin out due to a lack of local work to support existing workers as well as a dearth of remote work to allow city salaries to come back to Small Town USA and prop up businesses through outsized taxes and spending. This will cause a contraction, forcing more locals to cities, deflating rural property values further while cities keep struggling with a lack of supply.

The silver bullet - the only silver bullet for any crisis we’re currently facing - was widespread remote work allowing humans to relocate based on preference rather than career need, and thus alleviate urban sprawl and revitalize smaller communities. Capital and Government have killed that dead, and there’s no way to bring it back.




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