Bezos's Blue Origin is on track to have a very similar system in a few years, and perhaps even better eventually with the possibility of a reusable second stage. ULA still has plenty of contracts and could compete if its parent companies wanted to spend the money to do so. Arianespace is vaguely commercial, is currently cost-competitive, and could also choose to develop a reusable vehicle, if its parent companies/countries can stand the expense. There are also plenty of small-launcher outfits currently working that could also scale up given a contract and/or investment, just like SpaceX did from Falcon 1 to F9, were SpaceX to leave any room in the market by overpricing.
> Bezos's Blue Origin is on track to have a very similar system in a few years
That's on paper, not anything they've flown has come close to what SpaceX is demonstrating as a matter of some routine now.
(1) never been to orbit
(2) never been to orbit and then back down to a landing
(3) 6 flights vs 33
(4) payload < 2 Tonnes vs 5.5 for Falcon 9 re-usable (and 8 expendable).
At this point in time Blue Origin to me looks like a slightly more serious version of Armadillo Aerospace and SpaceX looks like the company that will put the majority of tonnage into orbit in the next decade.
It's easy to confuse Blue Origin with other companies with paper plans, but they're the real deal. Besides having demonstrated clear competence with New Shepard (with an LH2 engine no less), the orbital version is well underway. They've leased the pad, are currently building the factory, and are testing the engine. And Bezos definitely has the money. They may not be flying the New Glenn yet, but they will.
Yeah. Blue Origin is probably at least 4 years behind, but Bezos has more money than God and Blue Origin's approach is technically sound, so yeah. I don't think SpaceX will indefinitely be the only reusable launch provider, and I don't think anyone would want that anyway.
As far as I can tell, Blue Origin is taking their time to ensure the reliability and re-usability of their rockets before they take a shot at reaching orbit. Different strategy that's way less flashy, but I think they end up with a better track record and and a more clearly proven reliability (compared to SpaceX).
There is no substitute for launching. Whether or not Blue Origin will have a better track record and more clearly proven reliability is a complete unknown at this point and if they wait another 3 years before they start launching they'll be roughly a decade behind SpaceX.
